Image: niaid / cc by-2.0
Politicians proves to be misfortune to stop the self-damaged catastrophe – although it still beneficial
Of the body count the dead – and in lombardy, in madrid, in new york, we first see the beginning – one day the whole failure of the western hemisphare will open, and of course, including the even non-existable shock effects on economics and society in the whole world.
For weeks, those responsible have not taken note of the facts and danger to play. When the spread against the soothing prediction was suddenly obvious, one went to another form of head-in-sand-stuck over: fatalism, you can do nothing more against the spread anyway. Stummer than any religious fanatic combined politician scientific ignorance with faith in fate.
Leading joke figures
Hardly anyone has expected someone’s mind from the trump administration, europe (with a doctor at the top) was also a total failure. The danger of italy did not really surprise, the destroyed spain proves to be a totally imperious, politkasper boris johnson plays with the life of his compatriots roulette, the government macron does not leave no opportunity to get into corruption, germany was so far in the disciplines incompetence, expand and appease. But even the smaller states make it hardly better.
At first, the little virus was far away and therefore no problem, now exploding the red points with the infection numbers – and therefore you can not do anything anymore. Both are equally irrational misguided. Initially, the exponential growth did not understand, now one is too stupid to intervene in the devastating exponents with kuhle’s head. Those who always "panicmaking" warned and claimed, the fear is worse than the virus, takes real panic now. They make a fear into the pants, rather than acting evidence-based, supervised and determined to act. The goods still possibly.
No idea, no plan to look at arrogant over the box
The wheel does not have to be reinvented. But one was either ignorant to read expert texts, or to arrogant to learn from the asian countries (effective maws in china, as asia got the epidemic on the handle). The media assist as usual, especially claus glue with his china-bashing. The marching direction is apparently to cake the state failure, even before the whole range of consequences is visible.
The measures are still not focused on the essentials. Credit guarantees are lacking, but they are roughly effective, as insurancems to pay out for a burning building, whose main part still to rescue goods. This will also clear that the strategy "to stop" attached to "slow it down".
The western governments of a fire brigade, who rated whether they prefer to break off and leaving the remaining sparks or the fire "controlled" furthers lets, until he goes out in the ruin by itself. That does not help the economy.
The solution is already available
There is no convincing and informed reasons for this as the brilliant article of the engineer and economists tomas pueyo, whom i fully adhere to (and 40 million others). Please take the time to read it! (here german). Unlike in most contributing, numbers and evidence are argued here. To illustration, how does the suggestion of the "leaving" is a diagram from the article, which shows the order of which the potential intensive care patients (icu) were exceeded the capacity (also a better supply in germany, the red line only marginally lift. All about the line die).
As if that’s not bad enough goods: the surcharge of the health system was driving to many other dead, one "dilution strategy" additive demand the mutations of the virus.
You can implement such a strategy of reason currently only in nation states. It is better here to immediately meet decentralized macers and to prove their effectiveness as to lose valuable time to political unity. So what about doing so?
1. Immediate measures: avoid further infections
For two days, the infection figures are rising worrying again. Apparently, the measures are not yet sufficiently adhered to
– consistent and without exception social distancing private, at work, in public transport, but outdoors. Everyone is potential infection risk and must be kept away from others (auber family, partner and shared flat).
– for everyone, especially for people with many professional contacts, masks must be available. Wear is recommended by doctors.
Denying the effectiveness by the resistance is almost criminal. Is one too proud to ask china for help?
– prevent contact infections due to handswashing, gloves, avoid contacts and disinfection, also dubs in densely populated inner states. Advertising for meaningful individual protection could help.
– starting locks as well as drawings of companies, farms, restaurants, schools and universities only as emergency removal.
– extension of the bed capacity (only conditionally and suitable, s. Diagram above).
– providing up-to-date data, in particular for intensive occupancy, by withdrawal of competencies of the rki (dashboard), which has proven to be inadequate (cf. Italy).
2. Short term: identifying the sick and treating them isolated
– establishment of covid19 treatment centers in halls or tents by the counties or city, if necessary supported by technical aid or a banner.
– there is initial diagnosis instead of fever fairs, blood count, oxygen sadness, lung ct, influenza and sars cov2 test as well as the treatment of lighter trap, also medicamentos (cf. Epidemiologically effective macers in china).
– recognizing suspected traps by temperature screening in public space, especially at bahnhofen, supermarkets, amtern, access to fever or cough.
– suspected traps should voluntarily go into the treatment centers. However, the overfree of heavy trap to the hospital is usually only done by the centers, where more efficient diagnostic and treatment options are available (chinese guidelines).
– all imaginable protection measures, relief and primary treatment for hospital staff. Build separate covid19 treatment capitals without the need for an undersupply of other urgent trap.
– all sick patients should receive access to novel drug treatment within studies, especially if pre-current evidence is available for effectiveness. Ensuring the medication supply, possibly state tax purposes of patents.
3. In the medium term: ways to improve
– massive expansion of test capacity with fast results. Suitable use of geneses.
– start contacts and troubles of companies, farms, restaurants, schools and universities only until the number of new infections is significantly reduced.
– if individual protection is ensured by distance, masks, fresh air and hygiene (but only then), gradual loosening of the above emergency events, transition to smart distancing.
– travel coatings to areas with similar infection content and the same measures can be canceled (also internationally).
– monitoring of the latest scientific results regarding pathology of the virus (in particular possible consequential damage, treatment options, medications, prevention, epidemiology, virology, mutations, hygiene and appropriate adjustment of the above measures. Open discussion culture in these advisory bodies.
4. Long-term goal: successive elimination
– as soon as the new infection rate reaches virtually zero, slower transition to the strategy contact tracking and interrupting the infection chains. However, it can only work with fast testing and isolating as well as quartaine on entry (model taiwan).
– successively at the beginning of events in accordance with importance and risk potential.
– jumping of all state establishments made in the crisis, provided that they do not serve the prevention of prevention (especially no further monitoring or restriction of freedom of expression).
Overall: a loosely problem!
It is clear that so not all aspects of the corona epidemic are still called. At least one will raise the question of whether an economic system, the healthcare savings and budgetgrards allowed the imperion of protective rusts that really uses people. Act the land of the "free west" but continues to be incompetent, there is a risk that this states model is the current evolutionary or. Selection step does not overpart.
Confidential information to the author under corona confidential @ protonmail.Com. Opinions are better repealed in the forum.
Dr. Alexander unziber is physicist, lawyer and fake book author. His book "if you wife, where the mind is, has the day structure – instructions for myself thinking in crinted times" was published in 2019 in the westend publisher.